November 5, 2024
With the 2024 United States general election being held today, this day is shaping to be one of the most consequential in recent history. With the presidency and both chambers of Congress all up for election, the results will determine the direction of the country on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and climate change.
The process of electing a president in the United States does not come down to who gets the most votes in the country, it comes down to a system called the electoral college. The number of electoral votes per state is determined by the state’s number of Senators and Representatives. Each state, regardless of size, gets two Senators and a certain number of Representatives based on the state’s population. With fifty states and two Senators per state, the Senate, which is the higher chamber of congress, has 100 Senators. The lower chamber of congress, the House of Representatives, has 435 Representatives divided among the fifty states in terms of population.
California, for example, has two Senators and fifty-two Representatives because of its population of 39.37 million as of 2020. But smaller states such as Wyoming with a population of 576,000 as of 2020 have two Senators and only one Representative. Maine and Nebraska have a different approach to electoral college votes. They both allocate two electoral votes to the state popular vote and one vote to each congressional district they have, two in Maine and three in Nebraska. This can lead to a split electoral vote in the states.
In the current 2024 presidential election there are seven battleground states that are key to victory. These states are considered battleground or “swing” states since they are not consistently loyal to either political party. They include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Unlike “blue states” or “red states,” battleground states can swing toward either Democrats or Republicans. Both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are targeting undecided voters in these states, whose votes are crucial for obtaining the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
(2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map, n.d.)
Every two years, about ⅓ of the seats of the Senate are up for election. In the 2024 Senate election, 34 seats are to be decided in November. Democrats currently control 51 seats in the Senate with Republicans holding 49 seats. Current polls suggest that Republicans could take control of 51 Senate seats while Democrats hold onto 48 seats. One Senate seat in Ohio is currently a toss-up and can go to either party. Although the polls are not completely accurate, they show current trends of voting in states and the final results can vary.
(2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin, 2024)
The more solid the color, the more secure that state is for securing a seat for that party. Ohio is a toss-up. The Vice President is the tie breaking vote if the Senate is split 50-50.
Finally, every seat for the House of Representatives is up for reelection. Each Representative represents one congressional district. Each district includes approximately 747,000 people, which is the highest population-to-representative ratio among industrialized democracies and in US history. The House of Representatives originally started with 65 members in 1789, but as more and more states were added to the union and the population continued to increase, more representatives were added to keep the ratio steady. However, the 1920s saw a shift in population from rural areas to urban areas. Rural Representatives feared losing political power so they delayed adjusting the number of Representatives. In 1929, a law capped the number of representatives at 435 and the US has kept that limit since. Out of all 435 seats, the balance of power in the House would likely come down to 42 competitive races in many states throughout the nation.
The 2024 US general election is shaping up to be a pivotal movement that will determine the political landscape of the nation for years to come. With the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives all at stake, the results will influence key issues of the country such as the economy, healthcare, and climate change. The role of battleground states and districts will be critical in determining the future direction of the nation. With the election being held today, voters will decide the balance of power in the nation, but final results will likely take a few days as different states begin tallying their in-person and mail ballots at different times.
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